I got three semifinalists right, though France-Morocco was not close, and Spain did not crub-stomp Belgium. FIFA’s hopes of having the top four meet no earlier than the semis were realized, and the semis are star-studded enough for the sponsors.

Norway had proven themselves in qualification, and the group stage, and in beating Brazil. They’re a legitimately strong team. But they fell apart late, which surprised me. I was planning to compare them to the 1954 West German squad, which sandbagged Hungary in the group stage only to defeat them in the final. Norway rested its starters against France in the group stage, knowing perfectly well it mean facing Brazil in the knockouts. They didn’t mind, and beat Brazil. Against England, they played flat or the first 20 minutes or so, perhaps lulling England to sleep, and then roared to life after the break. They could easily have been up 2-0 going into the half, but for Sorloth’s blown 2v1 and a phantom camera cable. The sandbagging almost worked again. Almost. I know they had some chances after Haaland was subbed out, but they seemed feeble. Didn’t see how they could draw even at that point, never mind win.

My picks for the semis:

Argentina struggled with Cape Verde, and pulled off a near-miracle against Egypt, and then struggled with Switzerland. England struggled with the Congo, beat Mexico despite being a man down in one of the Cup’s most wildest matches, and came back against a strong Norway team. Similar struggles, but it feels like England’s done it in tougher circumstances. But Messi’s made fools of plenty before, and his teammates are stepping up a bit more, so… tough call. But I’ve picked against England three times now– against Croatia in the group stage, against Mexico in the Azteca, and against Norway. I’ve picked Argentina throughout. This feels like the moment things flip. England has finally had its second major threat show up, and I say that’ll be too much for Argentina.

France over Spain. No disrespect to Spain; they’ve beaten somewhat tougher competition in the knockouts, but France has blown everyone they’ve faced away. Even the 1-0 over Paraguay felt like a blowout. England and France in the final, to fight one more time over North America.