Lots has happened since my last Mondiale post.

The commutation (delay? pardon?) of Balogun’s suspension does not bother me, for two reasons. First, FIFA’s Disciplinary Code permits review of red-card suspensions, and FIFA’s regulations for this World Cup repeatedly refer and defer to the Disciplinary Code. In short, this decision– rare though not quite completely unique– did not violate FIFA’s rules.

Second, this sort of review should be automatic in competitions where it’s feasible, i.e., at the professional levels. You might not have the time or resources to review red cards at the youth or amateur levels. But when you’re talking about the highest levels– World Cup, Champions League, domestic leagues and cups, the Euros, Copa America, Olympics, etc.– you’ve got cameras all over the place and a few days between matches. You can afford to set up review boards for every red in the competition. So why not?

I’ve seen some commentary criticizing Trump for hurting the team’s psyche, that his involvement turned them from plucky underdogs into villains, and it squandered a lot of good will that this squad had accrued.

Maybe, but really? Was that really the problem? Maybe they could have remembered that they’re Americans, and they’re competitors, and they’re professionals, and with Balogun reinstated, they were out of excuses. You’re there to fight hard and win games.

Can you imagine Messi playing as badly– as softly— as the Americans did against Belgium because Milei tried to do his team a favor? Swap out Messi and Milei for Mbappe and Macron, or Haaland and King Haarald V, or Kane and Starmer, or even the Belgians and the Illuminati or whoever runs Belgium. Would they play poorly?

Can you imagine LeBron– bad example. Can you imagine MJ playing poorly in the Finals or the Olympics because Bush 41 or Clinton called up David Stern and said “stop being mean”? No?

What I can imagine is winners doing everything they can to win, psyching themselves into doing everything they can to win, and not making excuses.

…

Also, my picks are getting worse. I got only four semifinalists right. Three of my misses weren’t that surprising (Brazil, USA, Mexico), but Colombia losing to the Swiss really threw me off. I thought Colombia was impressive in the group stage and in beating Ghana, and that they’d handle Switzerland. Apparently not.

Picks for the quarters, more commentary on games later:

France over Morocco in what should be a close one. It’s a teensy bit suspicious that an Argentinian crew was assigned to ref the game, but I think France is better enough that they should win. Spain still hasn’t given up a goal, and will curb-stomp Belgium, I hope. Argentina should beat Switzerland– they’re just plain better, and Messi’s teammates are not just along for the ride. He’s scoring, but he doesn’t need to carry them.

Norway and England is a tough call. Both have been solid throughout most of the tournament. Both had an off game in the group stage, but I think Norway’s was more by choice than England’s was. Norway over England.