So Spain won, because they were more methodical and they beat generally stronger teams than Argentina, and they had the skill and discipline to not completely flake out.

The statistical difference was staggering. Argentina had no shots on target. Zero. They didn’t even register an off-target shot until extra time was almost over. That’s inexcusable. You’re in the World Cup final, you’re the defending champions, you’ve won every game so far, including a couple of miraculous comebacks… you can’t figure out how to change up tactics to generate some pressure on Spain’s defense? You’d think that at some point they’d take any old shot at the goal on the off chance of a favorable deflection, or the keeper bobbling it, or simply to prove that you didn’t completely forget the point of the game, which is putting the ball in the net.

Staggering, except of course for the stat that counts most: goals. After all that dominance by Spain, Argentina was still only a goal behind, and had some chances to tie it very late. Here’s the momentum thingy from ESPN’s Gamecast:

Note the dramatic switch in momentum after the goal. You might say that Spain was sagging back and allowing Argentina to get forward, or that Argentina finally had to risk going forward because they were out of other options (and Ferran almost made them pay for it with a second goal), but I still have to ask, where was that all game long? You have to go forward at some point– why wait that long? “Spain’s really good” is not an excuse for your failure to get even one shot on goal, and to have that little momentum throughout the game.

That said… Spain is really good. They defend extremely effectively, with all 11 defending as far away from goal as can be done. If you don’t let the other team shoot, they can’t score. If you don’t let the other team near your goal, they can’t shoot. And so on. Very impressive.

But that just makes me wonder all the more about Argentina’s late surge. There were a few scary moments for Spain in the end. Was it because Spain, instead of defending high, sagged back? If so, why sag back– why change anything against 10 men who’d done nothing all game long? If not, then all the more reason to blame Argentina’s poor tactics, which didn’t change until it was almost too late. I’ll have to rewatch, God help me.

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This final pitted two of Alfredo Di Stéfano’s three national teams against each other. One of my favorite quotes is attributed to him: “Goals are not deserved, they are scored.” Spain might’ve deserved goals (and the win) yesterday, but I was afraid that Argentina would still score that late goal, and force the game into a dreaded shootout, where deserved’s got nothing to do with it. Argentina and Martinez would have probably have the advantage. Which leads to my next point:

FIFA should require that every player on the field at the end of extra time takes part in the shootout. Eleven versus eleven, assuming no reds. First, I like the idea of forcing the nervous wrecks and the backs to take part, whether they want to or not. The whole team tied, so the whole team should have to break the tie.

Second, it’s an additional punishment for teams that suffered red cards. Under my rule, Spain would’ve had an extra shooter, which woulda put Argentina at a disadvantage. In 1990, the other time Argentina barely lost a final in which they had no shots on goal, West Germany would’ve had two extra shooters. Is that an unfair advantage? Maybe. So don’t get red cards. Don’t get second yellows.

Also in 1990, Italy would’ve had an extra shooter in the semifinal against Maradona. Italy lost. In Naples. Yes, I’m still bitter.

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Congratulations to Spain and their young’uns!

Congratulations also to Argentina on a great run, and to Messi on a great career, but… I’m not sure he’s done with World Cup ball. Not with Argentina hosting one of the first games of the centennial tournament in 2030. Yes, he’s up there in years, but the guy with eight goals and four assists in this cup was not the problem yesterday.

England and France have rightfully earned a great deal of criticism for ruining my prediction. I still say France was wrongly penalized for Spain’s first goal. Some say that it was a penalty by the letter of the law. Well, if the law says I can draw a penalty by jumping directly into the path of a leg that is being reasonably swung towards the ball– despite my committing a handball just before I get kicked– then the law needs changing. France was flat regardless, and Spain slowly strangled the life out of them… but that little downer just before the water break didn’t help France at all.

England’s collapse was humiliating enough that I don’t feel as bad about the US tanking against Belgium. To park the bus with over 30 minutes of regular time left was clearly insane. To go with essentially six backs for that long against Messi et al was insane. For five or ten minutes? Or if you’re down to nine or ten men? Maybe then it would make sense. But when you’re the fourth-ranked team on the planet, and you’ve had success attacking your opponent, and you have two solid scoring options… why? Why crawl into your shell? Why tell Argentina that they’re not going to have to worry about counters? Dumb.

Granted, if it had worked, all would be forgiven and Tuchel would be the genius who got England back to the final for the first time since 101966. The problem is… it didn’t work. I saw somewhere that in the roughly 37 minutes between England’s goal and Argentina’s gamewinner, Argentina had 88% possession. There was an 18 minute stretch in there in which England completed just two passes, while Argentina completed over 100. Argentina again showed life and desperation and smart tactical flexibility, and Messi again showed his mettle, and his teammates again stepped up.

Yesterday’s bronze medal scrimmage was a sour sort of entertaining. It was nice to see a 6-4 game, and yay for Mbappé setting a record, and yay for Saka scoring a consolation hat trick, and so on, but the teams were clearly mailing it in.

Anyways, time to call the final so everyone can place the opposite bet. For now I don’t care who wins, so long as it’s legitimately entertaining. Maybe something will happen early in the game that forces me to take a side. I don’t know whether the scriptwriters would rather have Messi and Friends be the first repeat champions since 1962, or have the torch passed on to Yamal and Rodri and Porro and so on.

Argentina has beaten everyone they’ve faced, and they’re the only team to have won every game so far. In fact, I think they’re only the second team to be 7-0 in a World Cup– I’ll have to check. They’ve been spectacular… late in the second half and in extra time. You don’t want to have to count on winning it late over and over again, and the good fortune has to run out sometime. Doesn’t it?

I’m leaning towards Spain, because they’ve been more methodical and they’ve beaten generally stronger teams than Argentina has. If anybody has the skill and discipline to not completely flake out like England did, it’s this year’s Spanish team. That said, after reading my own blog, I’m not leaving this call up to my own judgement. Heads Argentina, tails Spain.

Tails, Spain. They will co-host in 2030 as defending champions.

Christopher Nolan’s Odyssey might be the worst adaptation of a classic I’ve ever seen. It’s one thing to take some creative liberties, it’s quite another to take a story about a boring day in the life of some Irish guy and turn it into a decades-long travelogue of the Mediterranean– hold on, it’s my editors.

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I’ll start over. Spoilers ahead.

Continue reading →

I got three semifinalists right, though France-Morocco was not close, and Spain did not crub-stomp Belgium. FIFA’s hopes of having the top four meet no earlier than the semis were realized, and the semis are star-studded enough for the sponsors.

Norway had proven themselves in qualification, and the group stage, and in beating Brazil. They’re a legitimately strong team. But they fell apart late, which surprised me. I was planning to compare them to the 1954 West German squad, which sandbagged Hungary in the group stage only to defeat them in the final. Norway rested its starters against France in the group stage, knowing perfectly well it mean facing Brazil in the knockouts. They didn’t mind, and beat Brazil. Against England, they played flat or the first 20 minutes or so, perhaps lulling England to sleep, and then roared to life after the break. They could easily have been up 2-0 going into the half, but for Sorloth’s blown 2v1 and a phantom camera cable. The sandbagging almost worked again. Almost. I know they had some chances after Haaland was subbed out, but they seemed feeble. Didn’t see how they could draw even at that point, never mind win.

My picks for the semis:

Argentina struggled with Cape Verde, and pulled off a near-miracle against Egypt, and then struggled with Switzerland. England struggled with the Congo, beat Mexico despite being a man down in one of the Cup’s most wildest matches, and came back against a strong Norway team. Similar struggles, but it feels like England’s done it in tougher circumstances. But Messi’s made fools of plenty before, and his teammates are stepping up a bit more, so… tough call. But I’ve picked against England three times now– against Croatia in the group stage, against Mexico in the Azteca, and against Norway. I’ve picked Argentina throughout. This feels like the moment things flip. England has finally had its second major threat show up, and I say that’ll be too much for Argentina.

France over Spain. No disrespect to Spain; they’ve beaten somewhat tougher competition in the knockouts, but France has blown everyone they’ve faced away. Even the 1-0 over Paraguay felt like a blowout. England and France in the final, to fight one more time over North America.

Lots has happened since my last Mondiale post.

The commutation (delay? pardon?) of Balogun’s suspension does not bother me, for two reasons. First, FIFA’s Disciplinary Code permits review of red-card suspensions, and FIFA’s regulations for this World Cup repeatedly refer and defer to the Disciplinary Code. In short, this decision– rare though not quite completely unique– did not violate FIFA’s rules.

Second, this sort of review should be automatic in competitions where it’s feasible, i.e., at the professional levels. You might not have the time or resources to review red cards at the youth or amateur levels. But when you’re talking about the highest levels– World Cup, Champions League, domestic leagues and cups, the Euros, Copa America, Olympics, etc.– you’ve got cameras all over the place and a few days between matches. You can afford to set up review boards for every red in the competition. So why not?

I’ve seen some commentary criticizing Trump for hurting the team’s psyche, that his involvement turned them from plucky underdogs into villains, and it squandered a lot of good will that this squad had accrued.

Maybe, but really? Was that really the problem? Maybe they could have remembered that they’re Americans, and they’re competitors, and they’re professionals, and with Balogun reinstated, they were out of excuses. You’re there to fight hard and win games.

Can you imagine Messi playing as badly– as softly— as the Americans did against Belgium because Milei tried to do his team a favor? Swap out Messi and Milei for Mbappe and Macron, or Haaland and King Haarald V, or Kane and Starmer, or even the Belgians and the Illuminati or whoever runs Belgium. Would they play poorly?

Can you imagine LeBron– bad example. Can you imagine MJ playing poorly in the Finals or the Olympics because Bush 41 or Clinton called up David Stern and said “stop being mean”? No?

What I can imagine is winners doing everything they can to win, psyching themselves into doing everything they can to win, and not making excuses.

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Also, my picks are getting worse. I got only four semifinalists right. Three of my misses weren’t that surprising (Brazil, USA, Mexico), but Colombia losing to the Swiss really threw me off. I thought Colombia was impressive in the group stage and in beating Ghana, and that they’d handle Switzerland. Apparently not.

Picks for the quarters, more commentary on games later:

France over Morocco in what should be a close one. It’s a teensy bit suspicious that an Argentinian crew was assigned to ref the game, but I think France is better enough that they should win. Spain still hasn’t given up a goal, and will curb-stomp Belgium, I hope. Argentina should beat Switzerland– they’re just plain better, and Messi’s teammates are not just along for the ride. He’s scoring, but he doesn’t need to carry them.

Norway and England is a tough call. Both have been solid throughout most of the tournament. Both had an off game in the group stage, but I think Norway’s was more by choice than England’s was. Norway over England.