I got three semifinalists right, though France-Morocco was not close, and Spain did not crub-stomp Belgium. FIFA’s hopes of having the top four meet no earlier than the semis were realized, and the semis are star-studded enough for the sponsors.

Norway had proven themselves in qualification, and the group stage, and in beating Brazil. They’re a legitimately strong team. But they fell apart late, which surprised me. I was planning to compare them to the 1954 West German squad, which sandbagged Hungary in the group stage only to defeat them in the final. Norway rested its starters against France in the group stage, knowing perfectly well it mean facing Brazil in the knockouts. They didn’t mind, and beat Brazil. Against England, they played flat or the first 20 minutes or so, perhaps lulling England to sleep, and then roared to life after the break. They could easily have been up 2-0 going into the half, but for Sorloth’s blown 2v1 and a phantom camera cable. The sandbagging almost worked again. Almost. I know they had some chances after Haaland was subbed out, but they seemed feeble. Didn’t see how they could draw even at that point, never mind win.

My picks for the semis:

Argentina struggled with Cape Verde, and pulled off a near-miracle against Egypt, and then struggled with Switzerland. England struggled with the Congo, beat Mexico despite being a man down in one of the Cup’s most wildest matches, and came back against a strong Norway team. Similar struggles, but it feels like England’s done it in tougher circumstances. But Messi’s made fools of plenty before, and his teammates are stepping up a bit more, so… tough call. But I’ve picked against England three times now– against Croatia in the group stage, against Mexico in the Azteca, and against Norway. I’ve picked Argentina throughout. This feels like the moment things flip. England has finally had its second major threat show up, and I say that’ll be too much for Argentina.

France over Spain. No disrespect to Spain; they’ve beaten somewhat tougher competition in the knockouts, but France has blown everyone they’ve faced away. Even the 1-0 over Paraguay felt like a blowout. England and France in the final, to fight one more time over North America.

Lots has happened since my last Mondiale post.

The commutation (delay? pardon?) of Balogun’s suspension does not bother me, for two reasons. First, FIFA’s Disciplinary Code permits review of red-card suspensions, and FIFA’s regulations for this World Cup repeatedly refer and defer to the Disciplinary Code. In short, this decision– rare though not quite completely unique– did not violate FIFA’s rules.

Second, this sort of review should be automatic in competitions where it’s feasible, i.e., at the professional levels. You might not have the time or resources to review red cards at the youth or amateur levels. But when you’re talking about the highest levels– World Cup, Champions League, domestic leagues and cups, the Euros, Copa America, Olympics, etc.– you’ve got cameras all over the place and a few days between matches. You can afford to set up review boards for every red in the competition. So why not?

I’ve seen some commentary criticizing Trump for hurting the team’s psyche, that his involvement turned them from plucky underdogs into villains, and it squandered a lot of good will that this squad had accrued.

Maybe, but really? Was that really the problem? Maybe they could have remembered that they’re Americans, and they’re competitors, and they’re professionals, and with Balogun reinstated, they were out of excuses. You’re there to fight hard and win games.

Can you imagine Messi playing as badly– as softly— as the Americans did against Belgium because Milei tried to do his team a favor? Swap out Messi and Milei for Mbappe and Macron, or Haaland and King Haarald V, or Kane and Starmer, or even the Belgians and the Illuminati or whoever runs Belgium. Would they play poorly?

Can you imagine LeBron– bad example. Can you imagine MJ playing poorly in the Finals or the Olympics because Bush 41 or Clinton called up David Stern and said “stop being mean”? No?

What I can imagine is winners doing everything they can to win, psyching themselves into doing everything they can to win, and not making excuses.

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Also, my picks are getting worse. I got only four semifinalists right. Three of my misses weren’t that surprising (Brazil, USA, Mexico), but Colombia losing to the Swiss really threw me off. I thought Colombia was impressive in the group stage and in beating Ghana, and that they’d handle Switzerland. Apparently not.

Picks for the quarters, more commentary on games later:

France over Morocco in what should be a close one. It’s a teensy bit suspicious that an Argentinian crew was assigned to ref the game, but I think France is better enough that they should win. Spain still hasn’t given up a goal, and will curb-stomp Belgium, I hope. Argentina should beat Switzerland– they’re just plain better, and Messi’s teammates are not just along for the ride. He’s scoring, but he doesn’t need to carry them.

Norway and England is a tough call. Both have been solid throughout most of the tournament. Both had an off game in the group stage, but I think Norway’s was more by choice than England’s was. Norway over England.

Happy 250th birthday to the United States of America, and happy 154th birthday to Calvin Coolidge!

We should also observe the 200th anniversary of the passing of John Adams and Thomas Jefferson. In so doing, I’ll repost a bit from a few years back:

Imagine opening a newspaper in early July of 1826 to find that John Adams and Thomas Jefferson had died not merely on the same day, but on the fiftieth anniversary of the Founding itself. I’ll bet that as much as any event in our history ever had or would, the occasion of their deaths heightened the American sense of being watched over by what Jefferson called “Divine Providence.”
–Me, “Fourth of July, 2007.”

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The US doesn’t play until Monday, so today I cheered for Morocco and France because they were the first two nations to recognize our independence. It worked, they won. Tonight: steaks, neighborhood fireworks, and the Cubbies are on national TV at Wrigley.

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Speaking of the birthday boy, I think this year I’ll reuse one of my favorite commentaries on the Declaration. This excerpt comes from President Coolidge’s speech “The Inspiration of the Declaration,” delivered exactly 100 years ago… tomorrow. The Fourth was on a Sunday back in 1926, which was when people used to care about that sort of thing (as evidenced by a big chunk of the speech), so he gave his address the next day.

The whole thing’s worth reading, but today I re-post that part that resonates most with me:

About the Declaration there is a finality that is exceedingly restful. It is often asserted that the world has made a great deal of progress since 1776, that we have had new thoughts and new experiences which have given us a great advance over the people of that day, and that we may therefore very well discard their conclusions for something more modern. But that reasoning can not be applied to this great charter. If all men are created equal, that is final. If they are endowed with inalienable rights, that is final. If governments derive their just powers from the consent of the governed, that is final. No advance, no progress can be made beyond these propositions. If anyone wishes to deny their truth or their soundness, the only direction in which he can proceed historically is not forward, but backward toward the time when there was no equality, no rights of the individual, no rule of the people. Those who wish to proceed in that direction can not lay claim to progress. They are reactionary. Their ideas are not more modern, but more ancient, than those of the Revolutionary fathers.

As I’ve said before, if today you want to find fault or hypocrisy in the people who wrote and ratified the Declaration, and the people who worked and fought to achieve Independence, fine– but make sure to blame the humans, not the ideals.

The ideals were good. The ideals remain good, and they ever shall be good. We poor souls need to keep striving to live up to them.

Eleven picks right so far (I’m posting just before Colombia-Ghana), but some of my winners survived some real scares. Not scares for me; I have a grand total of zero dollars riding on these games.

Four misses. Paraguay shocked ze Germans. I feel like this has happened a lot recently: ze Germans dominated possession, had far more shots and corners, were definitely trying to win and not to not lose… but they just kept missing the target. Oh well. Morocco beat the Netherlands. That’s not really an upset given that FIFA ranks them 6th and 7th, respectively. I just guessed wrong. Portugal won a wild one over Croatia. Switzerland beat Algeria comfortably. Algeria had more possession, the Swiss had more shots.

Goal of the tournament so far: Lopez Cabral’s equalizer against Argentina tonight, no doubt. High stakes, high skill; it’ll be tough to beat.

Until that goal, my goal of the tournament was really an assist of the tournament: Campaz’s goal for Colombia against Uzbekistan came off a good run, a great battle, and great cross from Cucho Hernandez.

My picks for Round of 16, or the “eighth finals”:

Morocco over Canada. Paraguay was impressive against ze Germans, but France is firing on all cylinders and should win easily.

Brazil should beat Norway, especially if they have the good sense to mark Haaland out of the game. Much easier said than done– maybe he’s open that much because he knows how to get open, but sometimes I watch these games and wonder if anybody’s even trying to mark him. Wouldn’t be too much of an upset if Norway pulls it off.

Mexico will beat England. England will have the best player on the field in Kane, but Mexico’s been good, they’re playing at home, and after reading some reports today… I’m not sure England will be up for this match. I’ll leave it at that.

Portugal runs out of good fortune, and Spain wins. Portugal’s done better than I expected, and they seem less and less afraid of offending CR7 by subbing him out, but Spain looks a little too good to me. Oyarzabal is this year’s Superstar Who Looks Like An Accountant, and I think the writers will have him stick around a while longer.

The US has impressed. They’ve beaten teams they’re supposed to beat, and beaten them soundly. Yes, the backups had some defensive lapses against Turkey, but at least you can say those were the backups in an almost meaningless game. They really impressed me against Bosnia. The first touch looked much better than it did throughout the group stage. They put two in the net that counted, two that got called back, and one of each happened after the Balogun red card. They’re doing about as well as anyone could ask.

For that reason, and for Patriotism’s sake, and because Belgium has used up its good luck, and because the European Union should be dissolved into at least two different currency areas, the United States will win.

Argentina will slip past Egypt. The winner of Colombia-Ghana (I picked Colombia, but again, I’m posting just as the game kicks off) will beat Switzerland.

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Own Goal still leads the tournament in scoring, but I’ll bet Goal Called Back is high up there too, if not ahead.

Time to review my group stage picks:

A: Mexico won three as predicted, and look like the strongest of the host teams. No goals against. South Africa advanced, which I got right, but in second place instead of third, which I got wrong. Poor South Korea had to wait four days before learning they were knocked out. Czechia dead last as expected.

B: Exactly right: Switzerland in first, then Canada, Bosnia advances, Qatar out– but at least they got a point and some goals this time. Good for them.

C: Right order– Brazil, Morocco, Scotland, Haiti– but Scotland did not advance. Brazil looks a little better than some of the commentators are giving them credit for. It looks like they’re treating Neymar as a locker room guy instead of forcing him into the lineup a la Portugal/CR7, but we’ll see if that persists.

D: US won their first two and won the group earlier than ever before, which was nice, and then lost one when the backups who decided not to play defense. First touch still seems sloppier than most other teams, but the speed, aggression, tactics, and general skill level still seems like an improvement over World Cups past. It was nice to have the highest expectations in a group, and it was nice to mostly achieve them. I pooched the rest of the group. Congratulations to the Socceroos for finishing second, Paraguay advanced in third, and Turkey finished last, which was surprising. They were horrifically unlucky against Paraguay in particular.

E: Germany Germanied to first. Curaçao finished last as predicted, but scored a goal and earned a point, which will earn the players knighthoods or something back home. Ecuador underperformed a bit but got through, Ivory Coast is just plain stronger than expected.

F: I thought Japan would win the group and Holland would finish second “after struggling with Japan and Sweden.” Netherlands-Japan was one of the better games of the group stage, but Holland certainly did not struggle with Sweden, to the tune of 5-1. Sweden advanced in third, Tunisia went home. This group might’ve been my worst.

G: Nailed the order, but Iran was cruelly eliminated at the last second of the group stage. For me, that makes the Algeria-Austria match the game of the tournament so far. We’ll get there a few groups from now. Belgium looks meh. The US might meet them in the Round of 16, and Belgium looks beatable.

H: Spain won the group– nice of them to show up after the Cape Verde game. Cape Verde is this tournament’s Cinderella. I love that Vozinha is 40 years old and is saving the team’s rear end, rather than just being along for the ride. I love that the coach, Bubista, looks like Smokey Robinson. I hate that they’re paired with Argentina in the next round, so by hook or crook that’s going to be the end of their tournament. Uruguay badly underperformed, and are flying home commerical. If they’re smart, it’ll be in as many separate flights to as many different countries in as many different disguises as possible. Saudi last, as predicted.

I: Almost exactly right. “Almost” because France didn’t win on a tiebreaker, they just plain won. They looks like the best in the Cup for now. France has blown out everyone put in front of them, which is as much as you can ask of a team, and they have more than one guy who can score tons of goals. Granted, Norway played their subs in the third game, and we’ll see how that plays out. Lots of teams put lots of starters on the bench for the third game– we’ll see whether momentum or rest turns out to be more important.

J: Exactly right. Argentina did as well as expected, and– most importantly– somebody other than Messi scored. So maybe a strategy of designating a pure Messi-stopper would work, but you actually do have to worry about their other players.

I’m going with Austria-Algeria as the game of the tournament to date. Not the most star-studded, or most skilled, but maybe the most compelling. It was the last game in the group stage, and the last that affected three teams. A victory for either Austria or Algeria could knock the loser out (it might have depended on margin-of-victory), and allow Iran to advance. If they tied, both teams would advance and Iran would not. There was no game left that could alter that calculus. The incentive to let zero-zero happen was strong. Instead, both teams tried to win. Maybe not for the entire game, but for enough of it. They were tied at 90 minutes, with both teams knowing perfectly damn well they both were minutes away from safely advancing– and then both teams scored in stoppage time. Algeria scored, which would put Austria out and Iran into the next round. Then Kalajdžić bailed out the Austrians, and sent the Iranians home. Dramatic, yes, but also noble of these teams to try to win when they didn’t have to, and when it risked their own elimination.

K: Colombia deservedly wins, though I had them finishing second. CR7 isn’t washed, but the team is too locked into feeding him the ball. He needs to be a supersub. Bring him on the last 30 minutes or so. Congo in third, as predicted, but I didn’t have them advancing.

L: England beat out Croatia, so I got that wrong. That was my favorite match until the Algeria-Austria one. I worry that England is on a bit of a downward trajectory– they advanced, safely, but like the US their performance got weaker as the group stage dragged on. Croatia recovered and advanced with two wins, Ghana advanced in third, as predicted, Panama last.

My overall performance depends on how we’re counting. I had 31 of 48 teams in exactly the right spot, including 9 group-winners. Percentage-wse, that’s on par with past predictions. I got 27 of the 32 knockout teams right, though in varying position. Maybe that’s good. At least it sets a bar for future 48-team tournaments, but watch them go to 64 in 2030.

Now that a knockout game has already taken place– and for the record, I did take Canada over South Africa (good for American Jesse Marsch), let me predict the rest of the round of 32.

Germany is methodical and improving, and should have no trouble with Paraguay. France pummels Sweden.

Netherlands over Morocco after extra-time, I think. Croatia puts CR7 out of Portugal’s misery, maybe that’s an upset but I don’t really think so. Spain over Austria.

THe US should beat Bosnia, but I worry that we’re looking past them to the likely Belgium game. We shouldn’t. We’re not good enough to look past anybody. At this stage, I guess nobody’s good enough to look past anybody, but the US is definitely not good enough to do that. We should be Bosnia in regular time.

Belgium has been kind of flaky. They finally turned it on against New Zealand– if it stays on, they’ll beat Senegal easily.

Brazil over Japan. Norway over the Ivory Coast. Mexico, the strongest of the hosts, over Ecuador. England over Congo.

Argentina over Cape Verde is the only lock in this stage. Not simply because they’re better, but because the other, bigger “they” won’t let Messi get knocked out this early.

Egypt over Australia. Algeria over Switzerland in a minor upset. Colombia over Ghana.

Too many teams. This is exhausting.