Have to get on the record before I don my C-shirt for today’s opener.
Ben Johnson has said he wants to have the highest-scoring offense ever. I’m not going to say no to more points. Points are good. But even better is having more points than the other team at the end of the game, and the offense is just one part of that equation.
Caleb Williams has already broken into the Bears’ all-time top ten in passing yards and passing TDs, holds the Bears’ record for passing yards in a single season, and threw for the fourth-most touchdowns in a single season in Bears history. That may sound amazing, but given this team’s track record and the reality of regression-to-the-mean, all it allows me to say is that he’s an above-average pro quarterback. I hope this turns out to be an understatement but I’ve been disappointed before.
Anyhow, they’re probably going to have a decent offense this year, but I don’t like the idea of playing Nintendo ball. I’m reminded of a great many high-scoring teams (Peyton’s Colts and Broncos, the 2007 Patriots, etc.) setting scoring records left and right, and then not winning rings because racing up-and-down the field led to high-variance scores. You might win 56-10, but you also might lose 43-8 in the Super Bowl.
I’m reminded of those same teams winning it all a few years later with offenses that chewed up more of the clock on their way to scoring not-quite-as-many points as before.
The game’s complicated, but not that complicated. As exciting as it would be to score 48 points a game like I’m playing Madden on an IBM PS/1 in 1989, I’d be much happier with a commitment to setting time-of-possession records, getting the top seed and winning the Super Bowl. Ball-control on offense. Average 4.5 yards per play with a σ of 0.2. Move the chains. No turnovers. Milk the clock. No turnovers. Score a boring touchdown or field goal at the end of a long, defense-exhausting drive. Win 10 or 12 to 3 with 45 minutes of possession, then rinse and repeat the next week.
Here goes. Bear down.