The Greatest Month in Sports is back, and this time it’s at the right time of year. We’re hosting for the first time since 1994, Mexico’s hosting for the first time since 1986, and Canada’s hosting because reasons. Neither Italy nor Ireland qualified so I have no backup favorites going in. I’ll have to pick up a few along the way.
FIFA introduced some new rules right before the World Cup. The good news is that they may have finally figured out how to properly punish some timewasting. Take too long to take a goal kick? Give the other team a corner. Take too long to take a throw-in? Give it to the other team. Hopefully this will apply across the board on all restarts, but I’m not sure that’s the case. Take too long to make substitutions, or to address “injuries”? Play short for a bit. These are perfect punishments, so long as they’re enforced.
The bad news is that there’s no guarantee that they’ll be enforced throughout the tournament, especially since the rules are brand new. We’ve seen several sports leagues in recent years bring in rules or “points of emphasis” to fight diving, timewasting, and poor sportsmanship in general, but enforcement fades as the season progresses. Worse, there’s no guarantee the lost time will be restored, which ultimately is the real problem. We’ll see how it goes.
On to the predictions. I follow international and club soccer even less than I did four years ago, and we’re back to the goofy format of having some third place teams advance while others don’t, and I’m not even sure I’ve heard of some of the countries in this tournament, so take my predictions with a mine of salt.
Group A: Mexico, with all three games in Mexico, should win the group. South Korea second. South Africa will overperform somehow and advance, Czechia is out.
Group B: Switzerland first. American-led Canada will finish second despite having all three games in Canada. Canada playing on home turf in summer does not have nearly the same advantage Mexico does, and besides– they’re Canadian and will screw up somehow. Bosnia third, and good enough to advance. Qatar will finish so horribly dead last that people will keep questioning why they got to host three-and-a-half years ago.
Group C: Brazil should finish first. They have no excuse for not finishing first. If they decide to play for real– by which I mean if Neymar, Vini, et al decide not to flop or flake out or whine– there’s nothing anyone in this group (or most others) can do to stop them. The problem is, that’s a really, really big “if.” Morocco hopefuly wasn’t a flash in the pan last time, and will finish second. Then Scotland, who advances. Then Haiti. World ranking order.
Group D: The US will mercy rule every other team and finish first. This is pure, raw patriotism talking here. We’re hosting, it’s America’s 250th birthday, we finally have Stars and Stripes jerseys (hopefully the concept sticks), we have the talent– why not hope everything comes together? Paraguay overperforsm and finishes second. Turkey third, and advances. Australia last.
Group E: This is the real Group of Death, because if Germany doesn’t absolutely mop the floor with everybody else in this group, they should be executed. World ranking order, because Germany’s too good, Ecuador isn’t at home but it’s close enough for second, Curaçao will finish 45th to 48th overall which puts them at fourth in this group, and that leaves the Ivory Coast in third.
Group F: Japan will somehow upset the group standings and finish first. Holland second after struggling with Japan and Sweden. Tunisia squeaks past Sweden in the confusion. Sweden finishes last and flies home severely depressed at the missed opportunity.
Group G: Belgium first. Salah’s last (?) hurrah will be good enough for Egypt to finish second. Iran third, and advances, because that will definitely glue eyes to the screen. New Zealand last.
Group H: Spain overwhelms its way to first. Uruguay has lost some of its bite, so second. Cape Verde and Saudi Arabia tie and finish with one point each after both get wiped out by Spain and Uruguay. Cape Verde wins the meaningless tiebreaker in a three-legged sack race or whatever they’re using this year.
I and J are the actual Groups of Death, despite my comment on Germany. I think both of them are sending three teams through, but this is where you’ll see the most variance. Anyhow:
Group I: France will win the group on a tiebreaker. Norway Haalands to second, and but also show the world they’re not just Haaland. Senegal third, and advances. Iraq last.
Group J: Argentina wins, but in non-villainous fashion, unlike the last time they were defending champions. That was 1990, when Argentina was dragged to the final by Maradona, Caniggia, another Hand of God, and the most ugly, negative football ever seen outside of catenaccio. Maradona was at the height of his evil powers, and it was glorious to hate him.
Sorry, I got off track. Austria second. Algeria third, and advances. Jordan last. I’ll add that the Argentinians not named Messi better step up, because as great as Messi is, they don’t want to have to find out the hard way that he’s an all-time great, but he’s no Maradona.
Group K: Portugal wins the group in Ronaldo’s last shot. At least I think it’s his last, who knows. The guy’s aged better than LeBron. They might win all it this time, but if they do I hope it’s for Bruno. Portugal first, Colombia a strong second and hopefully nobody gets killed this time. DR Congo third, Uzbekistan last.
Group L: England really should win the group, but I’m going with Croatian Pirlo to lead his country to first. Then England. Then Ghana, because if anyone’s going to unexpectedly knock the US out eventually it’ll be Ghana. Panama finishes last, in their final tournament before becoming the 53rd state.
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I think that’s all the groups. This took much longer than I thought. Hopefully the next month or so will be filled with great games, consistent application of the new rules, relative peace and calm, and a US victory when it’s all said and done. We’ll see. More later.