VDV's Journal, Part IV

Alas, the Cup is over, and Spain won despite my predictions that they’d choke, and despite the coin flip I did a few days ago. It was very appropriate that the winning goal came from a midfielder, Andrés Iniesta, because that midfield was by far the best in the tournament, with Spain averaging over 58% possession. True, striker David Villa scored five goals, but a team total of eight goals over seven games is unimpressive. Of course, you can get away with it when the defense gives up just two goals, none in the knockout round.

Both keepers played well today and made many great saves, which was impressive, but kept the score from being much higher, which sucked. Which reminds me: I hate Arjen Robben. I’m not sure why, but there’s just something about that guy that makes me want to run a power sander over his face. I’m glad he choked twice on breakaways. That said, he won a little respect from me on the second breakaway. He didn’t score, but with Carles Puyol and another Spanish defender trying desperately to take him down, Robben didn’t flop or dive. Where others would have splayed themselves out on the grass, clutching an ankle, hands over the face, feigning agony, Robben stayed on his feet and kept trying to put the ball in the net. It was… admirable.

(Of course, he earned a yellow card a few seconds later by screaming at the ref for not calling a foul, and should have been shown a second yellow and a red in extra time.)

The best thing in my mind about Spain winning is that they probably deserved it more than any other team in the tournament. That doesn’t always happen–remember di Stéfano’s warning about goals. But Spain had the best midfield in the tournament. They gave up the fewest goals. And though they scored the fewest goals ever by any World Cup champion, it wasn’t for lack of trying. Spain kept attacking and they kept trying to win games outright. Most of the other teams didn’t.

…

Goal of the tournament: I would have gone with Luís Fabiano’s second goal against the Ivory Coast, until I saw the replay and Fabiano’s double handball. I liked Carlos Tevez’s second goal against Mexico, a blast from well outside the box into the far upper 90. But my favorite was one that went mostly unheralded. It was scored by Enrique Vera of Paraguay against Slovakia:

Ball is played to the top of the 18. Vera runs in from left-of-center towards the ball. Two defenders are collapsing on him, and the keeper’s at the top of the 6 to close down the angle. Vera arrives at the ball, he reaches across his body and against his own momentum with his right foot, and on the first touch gets juuuust under the ball with the outside of his foot–all while getting knocked down. The ball floats and spins past the diving keeper into the net. That’s a tough goal.

…

The Cup is over. Four agonizing years until the next one. Now I can crawl out of my cave, cancel cable, and rejoin civilization. What’s been going on in the world?

Spain vs. the Netherlands in the final. For me, this is the worst time of the Cup… knowing that there are two soccerless days left before the consolation match and the final, and then four long years before the whole thing starts again in Brazil.

Hopefully the final will be better than the Spain-Germany semifinal today. Spain couldn’t punch anything in, and for all their pressing against Ze Germans, couldn’t get behind them except for a brief flurry in the second half. Spain’s best offense came from Puyol’s head and from long shots outside the box. Germany seemed to miss Müller an awful lot. Özil looked anemic and harmless–there was no sign of the creativity he’d shown throughout the tournament, no dangerous through-balls, and only one threatening run, which resulted in a flop in the box. There was no service to Klose, and since he can’t develop and attack or create anything for himself, he may as well not have been in the game. I was surprised to see that Germany ended up with 49% of the possession; it seemed like Spain had the ball twice as much as Germany did. Dull first half, second half was a little better.

The Holland-Uruguay semifinal was far more entertaining–more offense, more aggression, more goals. Uruguay fought back after the first goal, and nearly fought back again in the end. Holland actually went out and won a game instead of relying on the other team melting down a la Brazil.

So, one way or another, we’re going to get a first-time champion. Before making a prediction, let’s have a look at my record, and lump in some “coulds” and “shoulds” with the “shalls”:

June 10, 2010
1. The US should advance. Yep.
2. Italy should win their group. Nope.
3. “I think Italy or Argentina or Brazil or England or France or Germany or Holland or Portugal or Spain will win.” Yep.

June 12, 2010
4. “…I correctly predicted Steven Gerrard would score the first goal of the US-England match, and that the US would tie it up…” Yep.

June 18, 2010
5. “Spain can still advance with wins against Chile and Honduras…” Yep.
6. “Spain’ll choke again.” They haven’t yet, but what better time than the final?
7. “Italy should still advance…” Nope.
8. “Brazil [could win] it all by being clinical and calculating instead of stylish and spectacular.” This wasn’t exactly a prediction, but their flameout against Holland was immature and unfocused.
9. “Now off to the bookstore and to pray for an Algerian win or draw against England.” Correct on both counts: I went to the bookstore and Algeria drew against England.

June 23, 2010
10. “Spain found its footing and will probably put on a show against Chile before choking in the elimination rounds.” They beat Chile, but again, haven’t choked yet.

June 27, 2010
11. Holland over Slovakia. Yes.
12. Brazil over Chile. Yes.
13. Germany over England. Yes.
14. Argentina over Mexico. Yes.
15. Japan over Paraguay. Nope. Japan lost in PKs.
16. Spain over Portugal. Yeppur.
17. Uruguay over Ghana. Yes, though I was pulling for Ghana at the end there.
18. Brazil over Holland. Nope.
19. Spain over Japan. This matchup didn’t happen, but Spain did advance to the semis.
20. Argentina over Germany. Hoo boy, nope. By the way, where was that German squad today?
21. Brazil over Uruguay. I was right that Uruguay would lose, but it was to Holland rather than Brazil.
22. Argentina over Spain. Wrong opponent, wrong result, doubly wrong.
23. Argentina over Brazil. Nope. Can’t happen.

July 2, 2010
24. “I still think the winner is coming out of the other half of the bracket.” This was after Brazil was eliminated. If this call is correct, then Spain will win. But if Spain wins, that’ll negates my prediction that Spain will choke.
25. “I think the winner of tomorrow’s Argentina-Germany match is going to win the whole thing.” Nope.

Not pretty. And that’s not even considering my original claim that the US would outscore their opponents by a combined score of 56 to 3 en route to winning the Cup (granted, that was a little tongue-in-cheek).

I don’t know who’s going to win on Sunday. Given their lineup, I think Spain should win, but even after shutting down Germany like they did, I still think they’re missing something. They have so much firepower on that roster, and yet seven goals in six games puts them on pace to be the lowest-scoring champion ever. Meanwhile, Holland’s won every game and scored at least two in all but one of their games. They’ve beaten a good offense in Brazil and a good defense in Uruguay. They could win. I don’t care who wins at this point, as long as the game’s a thriller.

So, who’s going to win? Tough call. I would not have predicted a Spain-Holland final. Chances are, someone out there made the right call simply because they like red and orange. Therefore, since I’ve been wrong about so much else this tournament, I’m going to rely on a recently-acquired fifty cent piece to call this one for me. Heads Holland, tails Spain…

Heads. Holland.

So much for “clinical and calculating.” Brazil’s second-half collapse today was one for the ages. They had a second-half lead against a flailing, desperate Holland until Felipe Melo had the mother of all meltdowns. We probably shouldn’t lay all the blame at one person’s feet, but when you block out your own keeper on a cross and knock the ball in your own net, get caught flat-footed on a corner kick and watch the guy you’re supposed to mark head in the game-winner, and then get red-carded for stomping a prone Arjen Robben, all in less than 20 minutes, then you probably shoulda stayed in bed that morning. Good for Holland that they came back against mighty Brazil, who typically doesn’t blow leads, but I still think the winner is coming out of the other half of the bracket.

Back to the previous round: June 27th was my favorite day of the tournament. Ze Germans’ 4-1 beatdown of England was my favorite game of the tournament so far, even though it turned into a blowout. Plenty of history, plenty of shots, level possession, lots of early action instead of a “settling in” period, a fierce comeback by the English, two perfect counterattacks by the Germans… great game. Yes, England got screwed out of a clear goal (at least clear to everyone except the ref, the linesman who couldn’t possibly have caught up with the ball in time to make an accurate call, and most of the players), but there were two silver linings to that cloud: first, it avenged the debatable goal Geoff Hurst scored against West Germany in 1966, and second, it might lead to more officials on or around the field, or some form of instant replay. (A third would be that it helped Germany win, if they’re your favorites.)

Later that day, the Argentines beat Mexico in another controversial but thrilling game. Tevez’s first goal rightfully drew a lot of complaints because it was clearly offsides. It was the height of absurdity to watch the refs carefully averting their eyes from the stadium’s jumbotrons as they showed the offsides goal over and over again.

FIFA could afford to ignore the two US goals that were disallowed in group play because (A) it was against the US, so they don’t care that much and (B) we won our group anyways, so it was moot. They could ignore the Italian goal that was disallowed against Slovakia because Italy was horrible in this tournament. But they can’t ignore these two blown calls, one that shouldn’t have been a goal and one that should, because they forced Mexico and England to keep playing from behind in an elimination game, and allowed the Argentines and Germans to rely on counterattacks. They’ve got to put more officials on the pitch/sidelines/goallines, or find some way to incorporate replay.

That said, Tevez’s second goal was spectacular. Watch.

I think the winner of tomorrow’s Argentina-Germany match is going to win the whole thing. Both teams have very good offenses and transition, but both defenses are prone to letdowns. I think Argentina has the advantage tomorrow because their letdowns haven’t cost them (or nearly cost them) any games, but who knows? As long as it’s an awesome game, I’ll be happy.

Portugal is gone, deservedly so. They beat up North Korea, but didn’t manage to score against anybody else. Shut out in three of four games. Pathetic. Spain should’ve beaten them a lot worse. Speaking of Spain, they still look like they have yet to wake up in this tournament. They’d better do it soon, because if they get past Paraguay as expected, they’re facing either Germany or Argentina.

Ghana and Uruguay are about to go into extra time. More later.

…

[Updated 5:45 PM]: Uruguay needs to knight Luis Suarez for that handball, or give him the key to the country, or whatever. It was illegal, it was red-worthy, it was unsportsmanlike, but it saved them. If only Gyan had buried that PK.

…

[Updated 12:07 PM, July 3, 2010]: GER 4:0 ARG! Not quite the kind of awesome I was hoping for, but good Lord, Germany’s got the counterattack down. So much for Argentina’s letdowns not costing them any games.

I would say I’m going to stick with this morning’s winner as the eventual champion, but my predictions seem to be no better than coin flips.

America’s problems in this World Cup:

1. The central defense was awful early in the matches. DeMerit and Onyewu got caught too far up in the 4th minute against England: Gerrard slips behind them for a goal. They got caught too far back against Slovenia in the 13th minute: Birsa has room and blasts one past Howard. DeMerit whiffed on a clearance against Algeria in the 6th minute, but we were spared as the resultant shot went off the crossbar.

So one would think that, having noticed that our central defense was weak in all three matches so far, Coach Bradley might make an adjustment. Maybe play with a defensive midfielder in front of the center backs, instead of center mids side-by-side. Maybe find a better combination of center backs (in fairness, Papa Bradley did replace Onyewu with Bocanegra for the last two matches, but Boca-DeMerit in the middle wasn’t much better). Maybe give them a better pep talk or warm-up so they’re ready to play from the first whistle. Maybe even play with a sweeper, as archaic as that seems at the top level.

Apparently not. Five minutes in, one of the Boateng brothers took the ball away from Clark (who was supposed to mark Gerrard in the first match), took it right at DeMerit (who missed a clearance against Algeria and was rescued by the crossbar), and shot it past DeMerit and Howard into the net. And for good measure, Cherundolo and DeMerit let Gyan blow past them for the game-winner just three minutes into extra time.

Homework for 2014: find better center backs, and find somebody better than Ricardo Clark to put in the midfield alongside Baby Bradley.

2. The forwards played poorly overall. The finishing was weak, and we should’ve had more goals against Slovenia, Algeria and Ghana. Of our five goals that counted, none came from the forwards. Of the two goals that were wrongly disallowed, neither came from a forward.

Findley was totally useless. It looks like he was put on the team for his speed–fine, make him a late-game sub when the other teams’ backs are tired. Altidore has enough size and speed to wear down a defense during a game (well, maybe not “enough” but more than anyone else on the American roster). Altidore wasn’t great, but he was far more effective than Findley. Hopefully he’ll play better and we’ll make better use of him in future World Cups.

Pairing Gomez with Altidore seemed like a much more dynamic combination–I’d love to know why Gomez didn’t start against Ghana.

This is a nation of 310 million people. We can’t find two decent strikers to put on a field at the same time, never mind four to put on a roster?

3. The team was generally lethargic in the first half of each game, and far more energetic in the second half. Bad news: soccer is not designed for easy comebacks. The odds of winning after giving up the first goal are slim. Methinks the team mom needs to hand out the Twinkies and Capri Sun before the game, and Papa Bradley needs to come up with a better pre-game routine.

…

I am torn. I’m proud of our team for hanging on and fighting back in all four games, and these were exciting games. But at the same time, I’m kind of underwhelmed. After all, we were finally expected to advance from our group, but we only did so with nearly miraculous endgames against Slovenia and Algeria. And after winning our group, the teams standing between us and our first semifinal berth since 1930 were Ghana and either Uruguay or South Korea–not any of the major powers. We should have done better. It feels like a blown opportunity.

…

Now that my initial arcade-game-based predictions are shot to hell, I’ll have a look at the remaining games…

Remaining Round of 16 games: Holland over Slovakia, Brazil over Chile, Germany over England, Argentina over Mexico, Japan over Paraguay, Spain over Portugal. Quarters: Uruguay over Ghana, Brazil over Holland, Spain over Japan, Argentina over Germany. Semis: Brazil over Uruguay. Argentina over Spain. Final: Argentina over Brazil. I’ll try again when these turn out to be wrong.

I watched this morning’s US-Algeria game at O’Brothers with a buddy. ‘Twasn’t the best game of the Cup so far, but it was certainly the most tense. As that second half dragged on, and as our guys kept missing shot after shot, I thought I’d have to start this entry with something along the lines of “At least we didn’t lose any games.”

In spite of leaving Onyewu on the bench, the central defense once again started soft. Our backs let the Algerians behind them repeatedly, and the Algerians put a shot off our crossbar in the sixth minute. Then our guys got their composure–nice of them to do it without being scored on first–and put together attack after attack after attack.

I think Findley’s suspension was a blessing in disguise, because Gomez and Altidore seemed to be a good combination up front. But I look at someone as big and as fast as Altidore and I wonder if we couldn’t make better use of him as the big target in a 4-2-3-1, rather than alongside a smaller forward in a standard 4-4-2.

Looks like we were robbed of a goal again. Replay showed that Clint Dempsey (America’s most valuable player these last two World Cups, in my humble but probably correct opinion) was onside when he put the ball in the net about twenty minutes in. I’m pretty certain that “watching our guys get eliminated because legitimate goals were disallowed in back-to-back games” would make for interesting water-cooler talk, but wouldn’t do much to boost American interest in soccer.

And then England went up one on Slovenia in the other Group C match. And if the scores ended as they were, England and Slovenia would advance. And shot after shot after shot went over, or wide, or got blocked. And then the England-Slovenia match ended, meaning we only had a few minutes of injury time left to score.

And then came that final 4-on-2 break, and Donovan’s feed to Altidore, and Altidore’s cross to Dempsey, and Dempsey’s shot, and Donovan slotting the rebound home.

The bar went nuts. People leapt from their seats, spilling beer, spraying beer, knocking over stools, crushing little kids whose parents had been stupid enough to bring them there, screaming “U-S-A! U-S-A!” (My own reaction was delayed about two seconds because I’d been conditioned to expect a shanked shot after the previous 90 minutes.) It was beautiful.

…

Thank God we won Group C, because now we get to play Ghana instead of Germany in the Round of 16. We have a chance to avenge our 2006 loss to Ghana, which eliminated us. If we get past Ghana, then we face either Uruguay or South Korea in the quarterfinals. That’s a hell of a lot better route than second-place England faces: if they beat Germany, then they face the Argentina-Mexico winner.

Argentina still looks good. When your second-stringers beat the tar out of Greece, who was desperate to win, you’re having a very good Cup. Brazil demolished the Ivory Coast, have already qualified for the next round, and hopefully will shrug off Kaka’s ridiculous red-card and dispatch Portugal. I think it’s a shame that Argentina and Brazil are in the same half of the bracket because they can’t meet in the final. [Note: I have no idea what I was thinking when I wrote the previous sentence. They both won their groups and are on opposite sides of the bracket. An ARG:BRA final is a possibility.]

Spain found its footing and will probably put on a show against Chile before choking in the elimination rounds. France’s flameout was utterly spectacular, right down to having only ten men pose for the pre-game picture and the coach refuse to shake hands after the game. I only wish South Africa had beaten them badly enough to advance to the next round–but then, that would have been at Mexico’s expense, and I think Mexico’s been decent this year.

Italy… Italy. I don’t know what to say. Assuming the US doesn’t win the whole thing, I want to see Italy repeat as champions. And if you told me that after two games they’d have two ties, I wouldn’t have been surprised, because the Azzurri always start slow. But for Christ’s sake, please stop the diving and the flopping and the acting and the diving. It’s embarrassing. It’s shameful. Just put the f@#$&*g ball in the back of the net. Please bury Slovakia tomorrow and do it without the nonsense.

…

[Updated 12:02 PM, June 24:] Italy, you deserved worse. I can’t believe how badly Cannavaro got suckered on that third goal. I can’t believe you waited until the last 20 minutes to start playing with any sort of intensity. How did you manage to get only two points out of that group?

Clean house. New coach, new squad, find the next Buffon, find the next Pirlo, use more Quagliarella, and bring some offense next time. Good Lord.